Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a64…9500 sports 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$25 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%31W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days+$79
14 days+$79
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$167
other 9% −$212
politics 1% −$103
crypto 1% −$52
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -32.4% -38.9% 36% 27% +11.8%
≤30d 33 -7.4% -16.2% 39% 33% -7.6%
≤90d 33 -7.4% -16.2% 39% 33% -7.6%
all 84 -5.4% -14.5% 37% 33% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 33% -10.0%
10% -22.6% 31% -18.6%
15% -30.1% 30% -26.4%
20% -37.0% 26% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$49 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses31 / 53
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions6
Markets (closed)84 / 90
History coverage145d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $108 $108 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $25 +$7 +28%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $32 +$5 +15%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$2 -19%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $48 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $113 +$127 +113%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $230 −$155 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 27 $67 −$47 -70%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $1,253 +$190 +15%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $103 −$13 -12%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $638 −$544 -85%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $415 −$361 -87%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $800 −$488 -61%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $543 +$643 +118%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $213 +$76 +36%
Will Barcelona SC win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $198 +$14 +7%
Will Club Olimpia vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw? May 20 $31 −$28 -91%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $51 −$47 -93%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 20 $6 +$29 +442%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $384 +$304 +79%
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $102 +$201 +197%
Washington Mystics vs. Dallas Wings May 19 $2 −$1 -95%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $63 +$68 +108%
Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx May 18 $20 +$44 +216%
Toronto Tempo vs. Los Angeles Sparks May 18 $20 −$15 -72%
Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever May 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Clippers vs. Rockets Feb 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Hawks vs. Hornets Feb 12 $2 +$1 +56%
Bulls vs. Celtics Feb 12 $2 −$1 -88%
Clippers vs. Rockets Feb 11 $1 $0 +37%
Will Gabriel Fernando Indi win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential ele Feb 10 $60 −$54 -90%
Raptors vs. Magic Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Knicks Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucks vs. Wizards Jan 30 $1 +$1 +122%
Heat vs. Bulls Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Nets vs. Nuggets Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Jazz Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Jan 30 $25 −$25 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Jan 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Celtics Jan 30 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Rockets Jan 29 $6 +$7 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $32 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 12h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $25 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $25 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 13h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 13h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 13h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 13h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 13h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 13h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 13h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $36 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 13h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 14h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 17h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $9 17h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 38h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $3 38h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 19¢ $49 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $37 3d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 28¢ $48 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $49 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.59 · official $153.59 (match) · 298 history records