Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a65…06bb politics 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (145 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$4,003 (+9%) realized +$4,003 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +507% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +322% what you keep after slip
Net edge+322%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$4,409per market
Trades / day145.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 98% +$7,912
other 1% −$32
crypto 1% +$31
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+449.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.9% -14.9% 0% 0% -14.9%
≤30d 10 +506.9% +449.1% 60% 50% +5.6%
≤90d 10 +506.9% +449.1% 60% 50% +5.6%
all 10 +506.9% +449.1% 60% 50% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover145.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +449.1% 50% +5.6%
10% +396.6% 50% -4.5%
15% ← realistic here +348.6% 50% -13.7%
20% +304.6% 50% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +507% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
229.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,324 vs −$17 · ×76.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×229.48 per $1 lost it wins $229.48
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,003
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$4,409
Trades / day145.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $539 −$32 -6%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $20,000 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $21,639 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $187 +$1,523 +812%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $12 +$777 +6239%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $124 +$1,892 +1521%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $419 +$1,698 +405%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $604 +$2,022 +335%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 28 $58 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 25 $502 +$31 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $460 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $539 1h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1,710 18d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $254 18d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $479 18d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1,180 18d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2,017 18d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2,118 18d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2,626 18d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2,689 18d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 18d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $10 18d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $11 18d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 18d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 18d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 18d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 18d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 18d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 18d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 18d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 18d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 18d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 18d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 18d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records