Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:18:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a66…d749
crypto · 53 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,175 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,237 · open +$41
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$256
Realized−$1,237
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 33
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage139d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$462
7 days+$462
14 days+$462
30 days+$462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Gen.G 52¢ 62¢ $215 $256 +$41 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $174 $0 −$174 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $611 $0 −$611 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $128 $0 −$128 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 3PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $760 $0 −$760 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $370 $0 −$370 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $210 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 35¢ 0¢ $189 $0 −$189 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $94 −$75 -80%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $208 +$85 +41%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $97 +$111 +114%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $218 −$210 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $78 +$39 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $78 +$114 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $285 +$116 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $130 +$117 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $131 +$165 +126%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $140 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$45 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$19 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$299 +1479%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $148 +$123 +83%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $192 −$189 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $83 +$94 +114%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $50 −$34 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10AM ET Apr 02 $216 −$199 -92%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Rafael Jodar vs Tomas Machac Apr 02 $50 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9AM ET Apr 02 $192 +$42 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 29 $176 −$174 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6AM ET Mar 10 $130 −$128 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Mar 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 10 $20 +$24 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 10 $14 +$85 +594%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 10 $40 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 10 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 10 $63 +$117 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 10? Mar 10 $281 −$224 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jan 25 $611 −$611 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 25 $370 −$370 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 25 $396 +$594 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 81% −$1,405
sports 19% +$215
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 52¢ $218 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5 SELL Under 99¢ $293 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5 BUY Under 70¢ $208 3h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 46¢ $97 4h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $117 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $193 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +27.0% +14.9% 39% 39% +8.4%
≤30d 33 +27.0% +14.9% 39% 39% +8.4%
≤90d 37 +19.0% +7.7% 38% 38% -5.8%
all 52 +15.3% +4.3% 37% 37% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 37% -27.9%
10% -5.7% 35% -34.8%
15% -14.8% 33% -41.1%
20% -23.1% 29% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.88 · official $255.88 (match) · 369 history records