Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:56:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a67…14b0 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 561d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$480 (-29%) realized −$440 · open −$40
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days−$224
14 days−$224
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$564
crypto 7% +$58
sports 6% −$20
world 6% +$4
politics 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +15.9% +4.8% 56% 56% -32.7%
≤30d 9 +15.9% +4.8% 56% 56% -32.7%
≤90d 9 +15.9% +4.8% 56% 56% -32.7%
all 26 +0.6% -9.0% 54% 38% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 38% -36.0%
10% -17.7% 38% -42.2%
15% -25.6% 27% -47.8%
20% -32.9% 19% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$62 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

561d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$440
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage561d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 46¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $56 +$18 +32%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $37 +$19 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$29 +344%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $159 −$158 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $97 +$63 +65%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $176 −$126 -72%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $222 +$51 +23%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $146 −$146 -100%
Partizan vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jan 14 $50 $0 -1%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Jan 13 $50 −$48 -97%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-13? Jan 13 $80 −$57 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $55 +$26 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jan 13 $78 −$56 -72%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 13 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Everton win on 2024-12-04? Dec 04 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-04? Dec 04 $12 +$8 +68%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? Dec 04 $10 +$14 +139%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Dec 04 $21 −$5 -24%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 04 $29 −$8 -27%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Dec 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will Daniel Penny sentenced to more than 10 years years? Dec 03 $15 +$2 +10%
Will Leicester win on 2024-12-03? Dec 03 $7 +$6 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 46¢ $41 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 75¢ $56 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $37 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $159 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $159 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $97 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 16¢ $50 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $176 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $273 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 6d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $56 154d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $90 154d
Partizan vs. Olympiacos B.C. SELL Olympiacos B.C. 79¢ $50 154d
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 155d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-13? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 155d
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $50 155d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-13? BUY Yes 84¢ $80 155d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 155d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $81 155d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $22 155d
Will the US strike Somalia next? SELL No 55¢ $22 155d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $55 155d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $50 155d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $105 155d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $101 156d
Partizan vs. Olympiacos B.C. BUY Olympiacos B.C. 80¢ $50 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.26 · official $0.26 (match) · 51 history records