Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:28:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a69…3c16 crypto 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$40 (-10%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%43W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$68
sports 4% +$6
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -40.0% -45.7% 30% 26% -39.0%
≤30d 43 -40.0% -45.7% 30% 26% -39.0%
≤90d 153 -26.4% -33.4% 28% 26% -24.5%
all 153 -26.4% -33.4% 28% 26% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 26% -24.5%
10% -39.8% 25% -31.8%
15% -45.6% 22% -38.4%
20% -50.9% 18% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses43 / 110
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)153 / 157
History coverage50d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 41¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 30 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 30 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 30 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 1h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.54 · official $6.54 (match) · 314 history records