Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:29:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a6a…6cd9 crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$91 (-7%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%32W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$241
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +0.9% -8.7% 62% 50% -26.8%
≤30d 52 +0.9% -8.7% 62% 50% -26.8%
≤90d 52 +0.9% -8.7% 62% 50% -26.8%
all 52 +0.9% -8.7% 62% 50% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 50% -26.8%
10% -17.4% 40% -33.8%
15% -25.4% 33% -40.2%
20% -32.7% 25% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$21 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses32 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage20d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 46¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $58 +$16 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $157 +$22 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $139 −$7 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $69 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$50 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $53 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $53 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $53 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $53 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$9 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$14 +269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$4 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $42 +$17 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$15 +287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $53 54m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 54m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $8 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $8 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $8 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $8 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $8 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 57m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $6 58m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.73 · official $4.73 (match) · 179 history records