Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4A 0x4a6b…c293 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$311 (+44%) realized +$219 · open +$92
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$55
14 days+$251
30 days+$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$410
other 7% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -40.6% -46.2% 20% 20% -67.7%
≤30d 12 +52.6% +38.1% 67% 67% +62.4%
≤90d 12 +52.6% +38.1% 67% 67% +62.4%
all 12 +52.6% +38.1% 67% 67% +62.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.1% 67% +62.4%
10% +24.9% 67% +46.9%
15% +12.8% 58% +32.7%
20% +1.8% 58% +19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +80% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +128% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$19 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.14 per $1 lost it wins $5.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized+$219
Unrealized+$92
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage17d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 100¢ $105 $200 +$95 (+90%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $5 −$3 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$13 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$59 +194%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $256 +$90 +35%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $51 +$14 +27%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$42 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$58 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $53 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $54 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 51¢ $5 24h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 26h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $11 27h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 33¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 15¢ $10 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 32¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 8d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 33¢ $20 8d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 34¢ $10 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $64 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $51 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 37¢ $333 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $51 17d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.15 · official $205.15 (match) · 31 history records