Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:49:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a6e…fdec other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate27%8W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$1
other 35% +$1
crypto 9% −$1
economics 5% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 1% −$8
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +2.3% -7.4% 22% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +2.3% -7.4% 22% 11% -9.4%
all 30 -7.4% -16.2% 27% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 3% -10.5%
10% -24.2% 0% -19.1%
15% -31.5% 0% -26.9%
20% -38.2% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses8 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage392d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $73 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $84 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Dec 14 $8 −$6 -81%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $17 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $17 $0 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down in May? May 31 $2 −$1 -67%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $19 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? May 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30? May 29 $19 $0 +1%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 28 $19 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? May 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Pierre Gasly finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 24 $26 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $38 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 25h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $5 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $30 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $11 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $23 16d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $39 16d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $39 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $3 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $10 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $5 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $15 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.60 · official $34.60 (match) · 128 history records