Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:19:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a6f…8063 sports 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$969 (-40%) realized −$969 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%35W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$417
7 days−$364
14 days−$364
30 days−$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$919
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-47.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -49.9% -54.7% 26% 26% -45.5%
≤30d 39 -49.9% -54.7% 26% 26% -45.5%
≤90d 88 -50.8% -55.5% 27% 25% -52.7%
all 112 -42.4% -47.9% 31% 29% -44.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.9% 29% -44.1%
10% -52.9% 28% -49.4%
15% -57.4% 25% -54.3%
20% -61.6% 24% -58.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$969
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses35 / 77
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage100d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $60 +$20 +33%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $23 +$23 +100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $46 +$35 +76%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Ser Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs HAVU - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs HAVU - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs South America Rejects (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 P Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs South America Rejects (BO3) - DreamLeague Div Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: DOGSENT vs MODUS (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $44 +$30 +66%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $26 +$19 +76%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 17 $56 +$31 +55%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $17 +$18 +110%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $28 +$8 +29%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $13 +$16 +122%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$29 +287%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In May 05 $25 +$3 +12%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 05 $13 +$12 +89%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $43 +$51 +120%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Cheeki_Breeki - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $97 −$97 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte (BO5) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Inner Circle Academy - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs KUUSAMO.gg - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $80 9m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 75¢ $33 34m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 75¢ $27 34m
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 99¢ $72 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 93¢ $9 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $46 2h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL Estar Backs 100¢ $46 2h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 50¢ $23 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $41 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $10 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $74 6h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $44 7h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $45 7h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 56¢ $26 9h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 47¢ $13 11h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 59¢ $6 24h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 59¢ $3 24h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 59¢ $2 24h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 33¢ $11 29h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 50¢ $64 32h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 41¢ $20 32h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 99¢ $35 33h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 46¢ $9 33h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 47¢ $7 33h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 100¢ $47 46h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 45¢ $2 46h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 44¢ $10 46h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 43¢ $9 46h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL KOLESIE 58¢ $40 46h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $35 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 269 history records