Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4A 0x4a71…d4d2 crypto 2016 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$5,529 (-13%) realized −$5,542 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate62%1043W / 647L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day99.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10,277
sports 0% +$67
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 547 -3.5% -12.7% 53% 53% -25.2%
≤30d 1668 +15.5% +4.5% 62% 61% +1.2%
≤90d 1690 +15.5% +4.5% 62% 61% +1.1%
all 1690 +15.5% +4.5% 62% 61% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.5% 61% +1.1%
10% ← realistic here -5.5% 61% -8.6%
15% -14.6% 59% -17.4%
20% -23.0% 56% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$22 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$5,542
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses1043 / 647
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1690 / 2016
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day99.4
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1690 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 52¢ 66¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$76 -153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $73 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $124 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $62 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $62 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $161 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $83 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $36 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $132 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $62 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $36 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $75 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $88 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.98 · official $65.92 · 3500 history records