Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4A 0x4a73…32df crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$24 (-22%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$19
other 22% +$9
sports 13% −$14
economics 7% $0
politics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -27.7% -34.5% 40% 40% -11.7%
≤30d 7 -48.3% -53.2% 29% 29% -18.5%
≤90d 7 -48.3% -53.2% 29% 29% -18.5%
all 29 -38.0% -43.9% 45% 28% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.9% 28% -31.6%
10% -49.3% 24% -38.1%
15% -54.2% 17% -44.1%
20% -58.7% 17% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage233d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 23¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+335%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs JD Gaming 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will West Ham United FC win on 2025-12-27? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +57%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$6 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 07 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 07 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 07 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Dec 25 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Dec 25 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Dec 25 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Dec 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Dec 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Dec 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Dec 25 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $2 $0 +6%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Nov 03 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $8 $0 +1%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 26 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 22h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 37¢ $2 43h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $2 44h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 44h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 32¢ $2 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 26¢ $1 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 8d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 20¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 99d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2025-12-27? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 169d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 171d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 171d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 171d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 171d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 171d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $8 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.41 · official $10.41 (match) · 50 history records