Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:34:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a76…ddd4 crypto 367 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$470 (-5%) realized −$470 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate92%337W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$23
14 days+$30
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$68
sports 12% −$274
other 7% +$8
finance 4% +$9
politics 2% −$55
world 1% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -1.4% -10.8% 96% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 220 -2.7% -11.9% 95% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 353 -6.6% -15.5% 92% 0% -24.8%
all 367 -1.6% -11.0% 92% 4% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -14.3%
10% -19.5% 3% -22.5%
15% -27.3% 3% -30.0%
20% -34.4% 3% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$48 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$470
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses337 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)367 / 367
History coverage240d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 367 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $49 +$2 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? Jun 22 $50 +$4 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET Jun 22 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $29 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$1 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $29 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $14 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 96¢ $29 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $6 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 32h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 22? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 32h
Solana Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 99¢ $50 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 46h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 98¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2207 history records