Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4A 0x4a77…e59d sports 21 markets active 10h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,674 (+22%) realized +$1,674 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +111% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip
Net edge+62%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$356per market
Trades / day89.2pace
Fees−$223est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$970
7 days+$1,274
14 days+$1,274
30 days+$1,274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,274
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+90.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +116.5% +95.9% 50% 40% +14.5%
≤30d 21 +110.8% +90.7% 48% 38% +14.5%
≤90d 21 +110.8% +90.7% 48% 38% +14.5%
all 21 +110.8% +90.7% 48% 38% +14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +90.7% 38% +14.5%
10% ← realistic here +72.5% 33% +3.5%
15% +55.8% 19% -6.5%
20% +40.5% 19% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +111% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late +171% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
19.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$14 · ×10.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.5 per $1 lost it wins $9.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,674
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$223
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage7d
Avg bet$356
Trades / day89.2
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $1,467 +$296 +20%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $614 +$52 +9%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $789 −$25 -3%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $174 −$41 -24%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 +$2 +3%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $30 −$24 -78%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $2,120 +$463 +22%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $476 +$134 +28%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $563 −$2 -0%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $263 +$78 +30%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 +$59 +116%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $70 −$23 -33%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $332 +$303 +91%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $381 −$24 -6%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $23 +$7 +29%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $7 $0 -2%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $55 +$28 +52%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 0¢ $2 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL PlayTime 0¢ $0 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL PlayTime 2¢ $0 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL PlayTime 2¢ $0 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 94¢ $5 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 70¢ $4 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL PlayTime 56¢ $9 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL PlayTime 58¢ $4 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 54¢ $49 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 49¢ $49 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 44¢ $3 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 48¢ $50 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL PlayTime 57¢ $38 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL PlayTime 57¢ $29 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 49¢ $29 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 50¢ $30 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL PlayTime 58¢ $34 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL PlayTime 56¢ $6 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL PlayTime 56¢ $15 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL PlayTime 56¢ $79 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 49¢ $29 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 46¢ $27 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 46¢ $27 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 40¢ $25 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL PlayTime 39¢ $161 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 35¢ $30 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 30¢ $24 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 11¢ $28 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL PlayTime 30¢ $180 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL PlayTime 30¢ $28 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 644 history records