Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:26:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4a77…4693
crypto · 425 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$83 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$90 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses201 / 223
Open positions1
Markets (closed)424 / 425
History coverage7d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day71.8
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 424 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days+$85
14 days+$90
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 44¢ 6¢ $9 $1 −$7 (-85%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$15 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$15 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$10 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $9 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 418 +1.3% -8.4% 48% 48% -6.3%
≤30d 424 +0.9% -8.7% 47% 47% -6.2%
≤90d 424 +0.9% -8.7% 47% 47% -6.2%
all 424 +0.9% -8.7% 47% 47% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover71.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 47% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 47% -15.2%
15% -25.4% 47% -23.4%
20% -32.7% 47% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.27 · official $6.57 · 737 history records