Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a77…85d0 crypto 149 markets active 2d ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$398 (-3%) realized −$398 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate61%90W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$788
14 days−$788
30 days−$788
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$412
other 2% −$88
sports 2% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -50.3% -55.0% 27% 27% -51.9%
≤30d 52 -50.3% -55.0% 27% 27% -51.9%
≤90d 88 -29.5% -36.2% 48% 22% -17.8%
all 148 -14.0% -22.2% 61% 31% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 31% -13.1%
10% -29.6% 18% -21.4%
15% -36.4% 12% -29.0%
20% -42.7% 5% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$24 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$398
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses90 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage105d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $22 +$4 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 +$7 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $16 +$8 +48%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $15 +$13 +86%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$7 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $89 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 8PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $40 −$23 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $141 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$21 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5AM ET Jun 13 $335 −$46 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 2AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10PM ET Jun 13 $118 −$90 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $240 −$240 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 46¢ $27 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 47¢ $98 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $14 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $68 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 3d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $10 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 567 history records