Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:19:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4A 0x4a7c…1dc7 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-3%) realized −$71 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$2,200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$54
tech 34% +$37
world 20% −$33
finance 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -14.6% -22.8% 50% 25% -15.3%
≤30d 4 -14.6% -22.8% 50% 25% -15.3%
≤90d 4 -14.6% -22.8% 50% 25% -15.3%
all 4 -14.6% -22.8% 50% 25% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 25% -15.3%
10% -30.1% 0% -23.4%
15% -36.9% 0% -30.8%
20% -43.1% 0% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$39 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2,200
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions19
Markets (closed)4 / 23
History coverage5d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? No 89¢ 93¢ $500 $522 +$22 (+4%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $390 $363 −$27 (-7%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 59¢ 90¢ $126 $191 +$66 (+52%)
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 65¢ 64¢ $180 $178 −$2 (-1%)
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $180 $174 −$6 (-3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 76¢ 81¢ $153 $163 +$10 (+7%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 71¢ 64¢ $142 $127 −$15 (-11%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $78 $82 +$4 (+5%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? No 71¢ 67¢ $55 $52 −$3 (-5%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No 65¢ 66¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Strava’s market cap be between $2B and $3B at market close on IPO day? Yes 55¢ 35¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-36%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? No 59¢ 60¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $40 $28 −$12 (-29%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 71¢ 66¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 81¢ 91¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+13%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Yes 73¢ 10¢ $35 $5 −$30 (-86%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $256 in June? Jun 27 $201 +$16 +8%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 26 $148 +$32 +22%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Jun 23 $95 −$76 -80%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Jun 22 $17 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? BUY No 89¢ $502 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $256 in June? SELL No 98¢ $17 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $90 11h
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 21¢ $52 12h
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 68¢ $101 12h
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 69¢ $101 12h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $256 in June? SELL No 98¢ $200 16h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 99¢ $180 22h
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 63¢ $61 22h
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 60¢ $61 22h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $100 36h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $300 36h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 71¢ $144 37h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $110 37h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $256 in June? BUY No 90¢ $201 44h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $44 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 66¢ $101 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 89¢ $100 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 33¢ $59 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 43¢ $26 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 41¢ $51 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 68¢ $41 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 68¢ $7 2d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 40¢ $28 3d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 72¢ $40 3d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 70¢ $20 3d
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 70¢ $20 3d
Will Strava’s market cap be between $2B and $3B at market close on IPO BUY Yes 42¢ $20 3d
Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO BUY Yes 57¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,199.70 · official $2,207.77 (match) · 52 history records