Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:47:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a7d…bd7a other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-10%) realized −$15 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$27
crypto 24% −$123
sports 4% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -18.1% -25.9% 55% 55% -20.4%
≤30d 11 -18.1% -25.9% 55% 55% -20.4%
≤90d 11 -18.1% -25.9% 55% 55% -20.4%
all 11 -18.1% -25.9% 55% 55% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 55% -20.4%
10% -33.0% 45% -28.1%
15% -39.5% 36% -35.0%
20% -45.4% 18% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$44 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 2¢ $23 $2 −$21 (-90%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $30 $1 −$28 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$32 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $90 +$11 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $66 +$41 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $109 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $60 +$19 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $90 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $66 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.74 · official $4.27 (match) · 27 history records