Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a81…03ed other 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%30W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$24
other 28% −$7
politics 20% +$1
sports 12% −$4
crypto 5% −$14
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 24 -1.6% -11.0% 46% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 66 -0.7% -10.2% 29% 0% -9.9%
all 96 -1.2% -10.6% 31% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses30 / 66
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage461d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $221 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $517 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $117 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $107 −$2 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $303 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $210 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $105 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $340 −$6 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $126 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $240 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $114 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $127 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $226 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $221 +$4 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $265 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $108 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $107 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $103 −$22 -21%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $140 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $12 −$2 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $129 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $2 $0 +8%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $128 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $271 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $129 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $137 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $261 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $130 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $130 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $130 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $289 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $130 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $126 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 12 $143 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $271 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 09 $142 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $265 +$1 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $199 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $258 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $561 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $421 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $129 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $108 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $116 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $15 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $117 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $117 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $106 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $105 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $18 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $87 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $107 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $56 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $72 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $107 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $105 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $105 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $103 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $105 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $105 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $70 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $35 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $105 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $101 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $116 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $24 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $0.00 (match) · 394 history records