Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:38:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4A 0x4a82…2fe6 politics 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% $0
other 29% $0
crypto 13% $0
politics 11% +$2
sports 4% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
all 35 +2.2% -7.6% 49% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 6% -9.3%
10% -16.4% 6% -18.0%
15% -24.5% 3% -25.9%
20% -31.9% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.8 per $1 lost it wins $3.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage265d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $121 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $28 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $65 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $32 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 19 $33 $0 +1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 19 $2 +$1 +25%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Hurry Up Tomorrow by The Weeknd be the top Spotify album for 2025 Oct 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 18 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 12 $4 $0 +8%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $3 $0 +1%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 08 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 05 $26 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $2 $0 -11%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $2 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $35 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $2 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $20 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $20 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $28 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $6 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $26 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $36 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $36 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $33 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $29 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $27 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $28 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $6 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $26 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $32 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $2 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $34 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $36 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records