Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a83…1160 crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-6%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate70%57W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$113
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$52
sports 1% −$1
weather 1% +$1
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -9.6% -18.2% 68% 5% -25.5%
≤30d 81 +2.5% -7.3% 70% 11% -15.8%
≤90d 81 +2.5% -7.3% 70% 11% -15.8%
all 81 +2.5% -7.3% 70% 11% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 11% -15.8%
10% -16.1% 6% -23.8%
15% -24.2% 6% -31.2%
20% -31.7% 5% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses57 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage14d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $22 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $22 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 24 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $29 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $9 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $29 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $22 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $12 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $9 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $21 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $21 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $24 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records