Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4A 0x4a8b…a5f5 crypto 19 markets active 6d ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$213 (+61%) realized +$213 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate82%14W / 3L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$217
other 27% $0
politics 7% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 17 +0.1% -9.4% 82% 6% +47.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 6% +47.4%
10% -18.1% 6% +33.3%
15% -26.0% 6% +20.4%
20% -33.3% 6% +8.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$2 · ×7.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×50.59 per $1 lost it wins $50.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses14 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage453d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on January 12? Jan 13 $95 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 5AM ET Dec 04 $217 +$217 +100%
Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 23 $1 $0 +0%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $6 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 80d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $6 86d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on January 12? BUY Down 50¢ $95 155d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 5AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $217 195d
Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 230d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 389d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 396d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $1 403d
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 413d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 413d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 417d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 417d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 424d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 424d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $1 438d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 445d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 452d
Solana above $145 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 459d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.34 · official $12.34 (match) · 101 history records