Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a8d…b6f4 world 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$4
other 19% $0
politics 4% −$3
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.2% -6.6% 50% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 14 +1.2% -8.4% 36% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 14 +1.2% -8.4% 36% 0% -8.6%
all 36 -2.0% -11.3% 39% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.1%
10% -19.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage472d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $8 +$1 +9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $41 +$2 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $41 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $75 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $25 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 -7%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Dec 14 $18 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jun 24 $6 $0 +5%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 06 $5 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Browns draft Abdul Carter? Apr 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? Mar 29 $14 $0 +1%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 26 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $5 $0 -5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 09 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $5 2m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $31 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $34 4h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 42h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $23 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $35 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $40 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $14 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.66 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records