Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4A 0x4a91…68f8 other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+0%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$19
politics 41% −$20
sports 4% +$101
world 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 96 -0.3% -9.8% 5% 5% -9.5%
all 124 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 10% -9.4%
10% -18.7% 7% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 5% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×12.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage122d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $409 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $347 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $309 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $605 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 16 $304 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $300 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $283 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $291 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $302 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $316 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $313 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $309 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $336 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $335 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $321 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $697 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $263 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $381 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $275 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $273 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $282 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $307 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $288 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $391 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $264 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $306 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $278 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $313 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $366 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $287 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $49 8h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $51 3d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $51 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 13d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 19d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 19d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 28d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $363 33d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $363 33d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $362 34d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $362 34d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $347 35d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $347 36d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $332 36d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $332 38d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $309 38d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $309 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.04 · official $88.04 (match) · 360 history records