Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:43:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4A 0x4a95…8c70 sports 132 markets active 1d ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+4%) realized +$53 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%53W / 75L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$32
14 days−$3
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% +$24
crypto 25% −$14
politics 20% −$34
other 12% +$18
weather 10% −$3
world 5% +$2
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% +$8
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -29.9% -36.6% 25% 19% -41.7%
≤30d 128 +22.3% +10.7% 41% 34% -3.2%
≤90d 128 +22.3% +10.7% 41% 34% -3.2%
all 128 +22.3% +10.7% 41% 34% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.7% 34% -3.2%
10% ← realistic here +0.1% 29% -12.4%
15% -9.6% 25% -20.9%
20% -18.4% 21% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses53 / 75
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)128 / 132
History coverage18d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes $51 $12 −$39 (-77%)
Will Mark Baisley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado? No 13¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+241%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Will David Jones win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -8%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? Jun 13 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 6? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 6? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 6? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +34%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +63%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +69%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -27%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -57%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +78%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $1 $0 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 +$1 +68%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +69%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1 +$1 +85%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$2 +206%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Chwalinska vs Andreeva Jun 06 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +58%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $2 +$1 +43%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 +$1 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $1 24h
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 24h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $1 24h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 24h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $5 25h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 25h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 52¢ $2 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 53¢ $1 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 52¢ $1 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 53¢ $1 5d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 5d
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $0 5d
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? SELL No 13¢ $0 5d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $4 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 5d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $6 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 5d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 54¢ $2 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 53¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.14 · official $19.14 (match) · 488 history records