Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4A 0x4a98…3113 sports 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,729 (+3%) realized +$6,791 · open −$62
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate83%107W / 22L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$1,490per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$264est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$8,772now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$1,086
14 days+$2,730
30 days+$3,887
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$4,359
other 7% +$1,084
weather 6% +$691
finance 4% +$637
world 3% −$418
crypto 1% +$21
politics 1% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.5% -7.3% 86% 0% -7.0%
≤30d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 89% 4% -5.9%
≤90d 129 -4.2% -13.3% 83% 16% -6.5%
all 129 -4.2% -13.3% 83% 16% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 16% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 6% -15.4%
15% -29.2% 5% -23.6%
20% -36.1% 5% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$2,095) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$204 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$8,772
Realized+$6,791
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses107 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$264
Open positions5
Markets (closed)129 / 134
History coverage80d
Avg bet$1,490
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Spain 97¢ 96¢ $8,139 $8,092 −$47 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $173 $207 +$34 (+19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $168 $188 +$20 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $175 $147 −$28 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $179 $138 −$42 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 25 $8,065 +$164 +2%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 23 $6,808 +$43 +1%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 23 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5,767 +$233 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6,748 +$252 +4%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $6,006 +$191 +3%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 20 $5,046 +$204 +4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $6,064 +$185 +3%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $6,119 +$184 +3%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $4,979 +$179 +4%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $4,696 +$190 +4%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $5,455 +$357 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 14 $5,884 +$551 +9%
Spread: Moldova (-1.5) Jun 05 $153 +$9 +6%
Spread: Luxembourg (-1.5) Jun 03 $4,262 +$142 +3%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 02 $4,413 +$203 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 02 $25 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,250 +$250 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 31 $2,775 +$22 +1%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,353 +$14 +1%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $876 +$32 +4%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $526 +$15 +3%
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5) May 27 $4,279 +$361 +8%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $38 +$2 +5%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $147 +$3 +2%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $3,954 +$116 +3%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1,468 +$75 +5%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $414 +$520 +125%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $3,368 +$159 +5%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1,331 +$40 +3%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-2.5) May 24 $4,448 +$422 +10%
Spread: OGC Nice (-1.5) May 22 $3,239 +$98 +3%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 21 $4,151 +$128 +3%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 19 $993 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 16 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner May 16 $102 +$5 +5%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $3,912 +$381 +10%
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-2.5) May 14 $3,994 +$204 +5%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 09 $340 +$18 +5%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win - Game 1 Winner May 06 $975 +$72 +7%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner May 05 $1,008 +$69 +7%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 04 $2,602 −$2,587 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 01 $2,910 +$86 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $2,938 +$225 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 97¢ $2,918 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 97¢ $4,854 18h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Spain 97¢ $374 18h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Germany 98¢ $893 46h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Germany 98¢ $269 47h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Germany 98¢ $593 47h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Germany 98¢ $640 47h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Germany 98¢ $5,104 47h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Germany 98¢ $156 47h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Germany 98¢ $410 47h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 97¢ $334 2d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 97¢ $335 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY England 99¢ $496 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY England 100¢ $355 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY England 100¢ $2,885 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY England 99¢ $40 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY England 99¢ $257 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY England 99¢ $666 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY England 99¢ $722 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY England 99¢ $225 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY England 99¢ $1,163 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $5,767 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $6,748 4d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 97¢ $6,006 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $5,499 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $566 7d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY DR Congo 97¢ $971 8d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY DR Congo 97¢ $1,780 8d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY DR Congo 97¢ $1,650 8d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY DR Congo 97¢ $1,708 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,772.24 · official $8,772.24 (match) · 939 history records