Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4a9a…d7dc crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate71%35W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$6
crypto 12% +$5
tech 2% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 1% −$10
sports 1% −$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 49 -2.5% -11.8% 71% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 2% -9.7%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses35 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage527d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $84 $84 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $25 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $71 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $75 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 03 $31 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 03 $38 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 27 $5,800 −$6 -0%
Will Connor McDavid win the Hart Trophy? Apr 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in th Apr 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +5%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 23 $22 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Mar 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $18 +$4 +22%
Will Nicolae Ciucă win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by January 31? Feb 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 16 $19 $0 +0%
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? Jan 29 $8 −$4 -50%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jan 17 $25 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $84 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 99¢ $25 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $57 31d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $28 60d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $46 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 91d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $26 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $52 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 121d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $71 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 148d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $63 149d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $29 181d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $46 182d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $53 211d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $19 240d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $55 242d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $23 273d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $48 273d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? BUY No 100¢ $43 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 332d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $20 332d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $53 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 362d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 99¢ $31 366d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 392d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 394d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.16 · official $84.16 (match) · 102 history records