Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4A 0x4a9b…eba0 other 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+0%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate23%16W / 53L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 66% −$14
politics 15% −$10
other 15% +$34
sports 2% +$24
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 +7.2% -3.0% 13% 7% -8.3%
≤90d 60 +1.8% -7.9% 20% 15% -8.5%
all 69 +1.5% -8.1% 23% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 13% -9.4%
10% -16.9% 13% -18.1%
15% -24.9% 13% -26.0%
20% -32.3% 12% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×4.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses16 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage552d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $9 +$9 +109%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $158 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $159 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $21 $0 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 13 $128 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $260 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 08 $260 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 07 $139 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $133 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $140 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $127 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $131 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $126 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $141 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $138 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $141 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $134 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $131 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $135 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $134 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $128 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $141 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $139 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $128 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $131 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $133 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $136 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $138 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $128 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 13 $6 +$5 +86%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 13 $13 +$6 +48%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $8 +$7 +89%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $12 +$14 +114%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 5h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 27h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 6d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 8d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 47¢ $9 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 11d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $25 15d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $25 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 16d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 16d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $26 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $26 17d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 18d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 18d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 24d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $28 24d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 24d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $43 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.28 · official $90.28 (match) · 250 history records