Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4aa1…f0b2 other 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$111 (+3%) realized +$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%55W / 80L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$86
14 days−$86
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$57
sports 21% +$22
crypto 1% −$41
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -32.3% -38.8% 22% 22% -27.1%
≤30d 33 -24.7% -31.9% 27% 24% -37.7%
≤90d 135 -6.1% -15.1% 41% 39% -8.5%
all 135 -6.1% -15.1% 41% 39% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 39% -8.5%
10% -23.2% 36% -17.2%
15% -30.6% 35% -25.2%
20% -37.4% 30% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$20 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses55 / 80
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage39d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$1 -3%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$2 -17%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 +$12 +134%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 +$24 +58%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $5 −$4 -87%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +15%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $41 +$80 +196%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$46 -90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$3 -7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$3 -6%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $69 −$69 -100%
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba end in a draw? May 30 $16 +$64 +404%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $25 $0 -2%
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) May 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $19 +$22 +114%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $16 +$4 +28%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-21? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $5 $0 -2%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 21 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $30 −$11 -37%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5 May 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $24 +$26 +109%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $28 +$22 +79%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $34 +$26 +76%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw? May 17 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $13 +$7 +50%
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $14 +$6 +43%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $25 +$25 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $44 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $46 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 15¢ $10 10h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 41¢ $20 10h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 11h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $9 26h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 0¢ $0 36h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 36h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 3¢ $1 36h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 18¢ $10 36h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 36h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 22¢ $5 37h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 55¢ $11 37h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $6 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $4 38h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 9¢ $10 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $65 40h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 41h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 91¢ $121 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 30¢ $41 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 5¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $51 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $38 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $38 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.68 · official $49.68 (match) · 431 history records