Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4aa1…3a7e
crypto · 90 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$48 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$46 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$33
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses48 / 40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$36
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 88% −$36
other 9% −$2
culture 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -17.2% -25.1% 57% 46% -20.2%
≤30d 88 -22.6% -30.0% 55% 42% -23.1%
≤90d 88 -22.6% -30.0% 55% 42% -23.1%
all 88 -22.6% -30.0% 55% 42% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 42% -23.1%
10% -36.7% 22% -30.5%
15% -42.8% 11% -37.2%
20% -48.4% 9% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.01 · official $33.01 (match) · 286 history records