Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4A 0x4aa1…fda9 crypto 1266 markets active 7h ago coverage 112d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate67%844W / 422L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$394
14 days+$255
30 days+$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$152
other 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -55.4% -59.6% 21% 12% -55.0%
≤30d 168 +6.8% -3.4% 64% 36% -4.2%
≤90d 741 +2.9% -6.9% 65% 40% -8.0%
all 1266 +1.6% -8.1% 67% 37% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 37% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 29% -17.6%
15% -24.9% 23% -25.5%
20% -32.3% 20% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses844 / 422
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1266 / 1266
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1266 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$26 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $43 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$27 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$16 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $116 −$39 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $57 +$15 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $62 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $62 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $72 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $72 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$30 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $104 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 08 $72 +$28 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $68 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 07 $62 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 07 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 07 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 06 $67 +$23 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 05 $52 −$47 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 05 $31 +$29 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 05 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 05 $16 −$15 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 05 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 05 $59 +$48 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 05 $31 −$12 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 05 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 05 $54 +$35 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $22 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $54 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $50 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $43 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $72 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $57 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records