Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:41:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4A 0x4aa4…767c sports 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 554d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$452 (-8%) realized −$449 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%58W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$37
14 days+$11
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$277
other 9% −$129
economics 2% −$26
crypto 1% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -15.0% -23.1% 40% 40% +9.8%
≤30d 22 -17.9% -25.7% 36% 36% -27.6%
≤90d 128 -11.8% -20.2% 42% 40% -14.4%
all 143 -17.0% -24.9% 41% 38% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 38% -16.0%
10% -32.1% 38% -24.0%
15% -38.7% 32% -31.4%
20% -44.7% 25% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$24 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$449
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses58 / 85
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions14
Markets (closed)143 / 157
History coverage554d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $23 $21 −$3 (-11%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $112 +$37 +33%
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 14 $60 −$13 -22%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $27 +$23 +86%
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Team WE win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $39 −$18 -45%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $11 +$8 +78%
Will Anyone's Legend win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 06 $29 +$12 +40%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $36 −$36 -99%
Game Handicap: JDG (-2.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+2.5) May 30 $10 +$7 +67%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $25 +$15 +60%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $17 −$16 -97%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 29 $29 −$29 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $15 −$9 -58%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $5 −$4 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $9 −$8 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $7 +$25 +378%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $7 +$4 +60%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 16 $10 −$3 -26%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $20 +$14 +69%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 15 $9 +$6 +60%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 15 $10 +$7 +73%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 15 $25 +$10 +41%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 15 $10 +$8 +79%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 15 $7 +$13 +188%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 14 $10 +$5 +52%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 14 $10 −$9 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 13 $12 −$1 -6%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 13 $10 −$2 -20%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 12 $12 +$8 +62%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 12 $11 −$11 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $31 −$30 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 10 $11 +$9 +82%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $35 +$15 +43%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 10 $62 +$29 +47%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $32 +$18 +54%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 10 $48 −$29 -62%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 10 $11 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 52m
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 1h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 1h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 16h
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 3d
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? BUY Yes 40¢ $18 3d
Will Team WE win LPL 2026 Split 2? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $28 8d
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 8d
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 8d
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 8d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 17¢ $1 9d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 17¢ $10 9d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 48¢ $11 9d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 26¢ $5 9d
Will Team WE win LPL 2026 Split 2? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Will Team WE win LPL 2026 Split 2? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9d
Will Team WE win LPL 2026 Split 2? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 48¢ $34 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.00 · official $181.05 (match) · 444 history records