Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4A
0x4aa4…0d61
crypto · 843 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$309 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$310 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$310
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses266 / 577
Open positions0
Markets (closed)843 / 843
History coverage28d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day97.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 843 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$7 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$7 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 29 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 29 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 29 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$310
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -9.8% -18.4% 69% 66% -8.2%
≤30d 843 -37.6% -43.5% 32% 29% -14.6%
≤90d 843 -37.6% -43.5% 32% 29% -14.6%
all 843 -37.6% -43.5% 32% 29% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover97.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.5% 29% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -48.9% 20% -22.8%
15% -53.9% 15% -30.2%
20% -58.4% 12% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records