Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4aa6…8f31 other 248 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$14
14 days−$25
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$42
sports 24% −$19
culture 7% −$7
politics 7% −$6
economics 6% −$4
crypto 4% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 83 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 187 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage130d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $207 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $230 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $163 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $206 $0 +0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $345 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $384 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $142 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $114 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $367 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $489 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $735 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $150 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $152 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $395 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $305 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $254 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $365 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $68 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $183 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $367 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $157 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $230 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $343 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $111 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $189 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $367 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $41 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $41 4h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 8h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 9h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $41 14h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $41 16h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 18h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 20h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $41 20h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $42 22h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $42 26h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $42 28h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $42 30h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $42 31h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 33h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $42 34h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $42 36h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $42 38h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $42 39h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $42 40h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $42 42h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $42 43h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 43h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 45h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 46h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $42 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $42 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.15 · official $41.15 (match) · 1394 history records