Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4aa6…3744 other 232 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%13W / 219L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$36
sports 23% −$17
politics 9% −$8
culture 7% −$8
economics 7% −$7
crypto 4% −$6
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 232 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses13 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)232 / 232
History coverage129d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 232 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $733 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $212 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $647 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $244 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $294 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 17 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $392 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 16 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $369 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $488 −$2 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $442 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $558 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $128 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $116 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $282 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $549 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $108 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $419 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $171 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 5h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 7h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $45 8h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $45 10h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 13h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 15h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $45 21h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $45 23h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 30h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 31h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 32h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 33h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 36h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 37h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 45h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $45 47h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $25 47h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $45 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $46 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $46 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1355 history records