Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4A 0x4aa6…39db other 73 markets active 3h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,207 (+18%) realized +$2,199 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%39W / 31L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$188
7 days+$411
14 days+$411
30 days+$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$1,366
sports 30% +$637
world 1% −$57
crypto 1% +$59
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +13.4% +2.6% 64% 64% +16.0%
≤30d 12 +18.1% +6.9% 67% 67% +21.6%
≤90d 46 -27.1% -34.0% 39% 37% -7.2%
all 70 +8.4% -1.9% 56% 54% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 54% +5.1%
10% -11.3% 49% -5.0%
15% -19.8% 41% -14.1%
20% -27.7% 33% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$82 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$2,199
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses39 / 31
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage238d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $158 +$56 +35%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$42 -42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $227 +$124 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$76 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $107 −$57 -54%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$59 +58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $132 −$82 -62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$166 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $252 +$110 +43%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $253 +$177 +70%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $153 −$150 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $51 +$57 +110%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $219 +$79 +36%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $153 −$85 -55%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $178 −$175 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $250 −$245 -98%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $180 +$149 +83%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $150 +$193 +128%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $250 −$250 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $300 −$31 -10%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $482 −$209 -43%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $500 +$332 +66%
Will the fight be won by submission? Mar 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Mar 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-01-10? Mar 29 $35 −$35 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 29 $120 +$12 +10%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Makhachev Parlay - Islam Wins Submission & Fight Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
AC Milan vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Mar 29 $86 −$86 -100%
Will "DtMF" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Mar 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-23? Mar 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-03-27? Mar 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $110 −$110 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 27 $600 +$338 +56%
Will France win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $250 +$318 +127%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $150 +$156 +104%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $778 +$185 +24%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $250 +$240 +96%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $25 +$4 +15%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $50 +$156 +312%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $500 +$124 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Will C BUY 25¢ $36 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $76 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $137 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $107 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $59 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $351 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $227 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $49 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 32¢ $29 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $107 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 34¢ $79 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 79¢ $160 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $50 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $132 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $319 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $362 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $252 7d
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 7d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $431 19d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $253 19d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 43¢ $153 36d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 46¢ $108 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.33 · official $143.33 · 148 history records