Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4A 0x4aa8…3b91 sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$812 (-22%) realized −$785 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$22
14 days−$36
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$980
sports 20% +$410
other 19% −$46
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +93.0% +74.6% 40% 35% -10.8%
≤30d 24 +67.1% +51.2% 33% 29% -15.1%
≤90d 27 +70.4% +54.1% 33% 30% -16.1%
all 35 +52.5% +38.0% 31% 29% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.0% 29% -26.6%
10% +24.8% 26% -33.6%
15% +12.8% 23% -40.0%
20% +1.7% 23% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +96% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$55 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$785
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions5
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage184d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $45 $30 −$15 (-33%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $40 $30 −$11 (-26%)
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Yes 21¢ 21¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 22 $577 −$282 -49%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $25 +$27 +105%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $205 −$27 -13%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $82 +$120 +146%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 21 $102 −$12 -11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $187 −$16 -8%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $71 +$44 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a Jun 21 $10 +$193 +1873%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $57 +$2 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 20 $37 −$5 -13%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 −$6 -70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 +$8 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $39 +$26 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$6 -14%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -53%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $34 +$80 +237%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $150 −$132 -88%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $127 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $59 −$58 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 05 $36 −$15 -42%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $40 +$164 +413%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $8 −$6 -69%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $377 −$208 -55%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 22 $173 −$173 -100%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Mar 22 $25 +$47 +192%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 10 $163 −$50 -31%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Mar 10 $306 −$140 -46%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 01 $200 −$51 -25%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 01 $150 −$81 -54%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 01 $31 −$4 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 15h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 6¢ $10 16h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $20 16h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 19h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $25 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $64 22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 5¢ $65 22h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $189 22h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $22 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $12 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 22¢ $91 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 24h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 17¢ $37 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 19¢ $49 25h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $116 25h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.17 · official $168.31 (match) · 138 history records