Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4A 0x4aae…954d sports 1492 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-3%) realized −$65 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%817W / 649L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$4
14 days−$13
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$12
other 26% −$78
crypto 1% −$6
politics 1% −$5
world 1% +$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +10.6% +0.1% 69% 63% -4.8%
≤30d 200 +9.2% -1.2% 64% 62% -6.0%
≤90d 1148 -0.5% -10.0% 56% 55% -11.2%
all 1466 -0.8% -10.2% 56% 54% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 54% -12.6%
10% -18.8% 49% -21.0%
15% -26.7% 42% -28.6%
20% -33.8% 34% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses817 / 649
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions26
Markets (closed)1466 / 1492
History coverage106d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 1466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 26¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+284%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 55¢ 82¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 63¢ 63¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 71¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Trump say "Incredible" during UFC 250? Yes 65¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 22¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will France win the World Cup? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Hamilton? Hamilton 87¢ 51¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +563%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $1 +$2 +197%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +114%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +38%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 $0 +47%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 197.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 200.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 201.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 202.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 199.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 198.5 Jun 11 $6 +$1 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 11 $7 +$1 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 197.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 198.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 199.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 202.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 201.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 203.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +23%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 205.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +31%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 206.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +36%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 +$1 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 200.5 Jun 09 $2 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 50¢ $1 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 5h
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 15h
Will Trump say "Incredible" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 16h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 40¢ $1 18h
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY No 12¢ $1 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 30h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $1 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 31h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 40h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 48¢ $1 40h
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Catalun BUY Yes 26¢ $1 40h
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Hamilton? BUY Hamilton 87¢ $1 40h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 BUY Over 86¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 61¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.86 · official $34.86 (match) · 3170 history records