Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:48:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4A 0x4ab1…b2af other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$58 (+0%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate20%15W / 59L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 65% −$14
other 16% +$25
politics 15% −$10
sports 2% +$52
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 +6.1% -4.0% 16% 11% -8.6%
all 74 +6.7% -3.5% 20% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 11% -9.3%
10% -12.7% 11% -18.0%
15% -21.2% 11% -25.9%
20% -28.9% 11% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses15 / 59
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage584d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $170 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $84 $0 +0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $144 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $150 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $137 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $283 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $140 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $147 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $149 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $145 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $140 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $153 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $141 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $144 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $138 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $141 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $139 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $141 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $152 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $151 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $152 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $142 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $153 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $153 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $149 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $145 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $61 8d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $24 9d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $24 9d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 10d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $20 11d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $20 12d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $30 16d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 17d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 18d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 18d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 19d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.75 · official $123.75 (match) · 259 history records