Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4A 0x4ab4…62d0 sports 44 markets active 5h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$60
other 39% −$34
crypto 6% −$18
world 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -17.9% -25.7% 39% 39% -16.5%
≤30d 32 -12.4% -20.8% 41% 41% -8.7%
≤90d 32 -12.4% -20.8% 41% 41% -8.7%
all 32 -12.4% -20.8% 41% 41% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 41% -8.7%
10% -28.3% 41% -17.5%
15% -35.3% 41% -25.4%
20% -41.6% 34% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)32 / 44
History coverage17d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 71¢ 69¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$5 +79%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 +$3 +44%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 +$13 +109%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $11 +$9 +79%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$14 +216%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $11 +$6 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $16 +$18 +109%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 +$9 +152%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $3 +$7 +234%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 +$14 +70%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $6 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $11 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 4h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 4h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $5 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 32h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 32h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $6 32h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 45h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $11 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $11 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $6 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes $5 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 3d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $6 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 66¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.24 · official $64.25 (match) · 70 history records