Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4ab5…e5ee crypto 329 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%171W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$11
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 -0.8% -10.3% 52% 52% -10.4%
≤30d 329 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 52% -9.8%
≤90d 329 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 52% -9.8%
all 329 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 52% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 52% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 52% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 52% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 52% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses171 / 158
Open positions0
Markets (closed)329 / 329
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 329 Trades
no open positions (158 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$5 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$6 +240%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$6 +252%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$6 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 530 history records