Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

4A 0x4aba…21c6 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$28 (+6%) realized +$28 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR69%break-even

Win rate92%12W / 1L

Drawdown32%max

Avg bet$38per market

Trades / day51.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +69%

net ROI/market (all)+8.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+19.6%	+8.2%	92%	69%	+1.8%
≤30d	13	+19.6%	+8.2%	92%	69%	+1.8%
≤90d	13	+19.6%	+8.2%	92%	69%	+1.8%
all	13	+19.6%	+8.2%	92%	69%	+1.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover51.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+8.2%	69%	+1.8%
10% ← realistic here	-2.1%	31%	-7.9%
15%	-11.6%	15%	-16.8%
20%	-20.3%	8%	-25.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 41% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +18% → late +21% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$20 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×4.16 per $1 lost it wins $4.16

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$28

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)92%

Wins / losses12 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)13 / 13

History coverage1d

Avg bet$38

Trades / day51.0

Drawdown32%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 13 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 26	$21	+$17	+80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 26	$75	+$6	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 26	$10	+$1	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 26	$76	+$8	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 26	$31	+$4	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 26	$45	+$2	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 26	$30	+$6	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 26	$51	+$10	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 26	$52	−$20	-38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Jun 26	$35	+$6	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 26	$56	+$17	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 26	$10	+$5	+47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 26	$5	+$2	+32%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$37	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$5	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$5	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$81	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Down	92¢	$25	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Down	86¢	$25	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$25	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	SELL Down	50¢	$12	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$5	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$5	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$83	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	SELL Down	81¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records