Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4A 0x4abc…8586 other 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$10
politics 27% −$5
sports 6% −$52
world 3% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 96 -8.2% -17.0% 8% 5% -9.9%
all 98 -8.0% -16.8% 8% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 5% -9.9%
10% -24.8% 5% -18.5%
15% -32.0% 4% -26.4%
20% -38.7% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 90
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)98 / 100
History coverage93d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $24 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $199 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $285 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $455 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $329 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $162 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $128 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $276 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $131 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $138 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 13 $280 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 10 $276 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $269 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $128 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $137 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 04 $140 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $137 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $286 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 01 $131 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $143 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $145 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $274 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $275 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $286 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $259 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $305 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $376 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $146 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $134 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $323 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $138 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $292 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $149 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 20h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 23h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 46h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 3d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $65 3d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 8d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 10d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 14d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 15d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 16d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 16d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 17d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 18d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 19d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.21 · official $95.21 (match) · 300 history records