Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:17:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4A 0x4abd…b14c crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$3 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$4
world 38% +$5
other 7% $0
economics 7% $0
tech 6% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +52.2% +37.7% 100% 75% +13.2%
≤30d 4 +52.2% +37.7% 100% 75% +13.2%
≤90d 4 +52.2% +37.7% 100% 75% +13.2%
all 37 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 41% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 41% -10.4%
10% -19.4% 41% -19.0%
15% -27.2% 32% -26.8%
20% -34.3% 19% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage114d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 5¢ 5¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+10%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 70¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 73¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +92%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +89%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7? Mar 02 $1 $0 +41%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 01 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $0 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 28 $1 $0 -7%
Will FK Orenburg win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 24 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 24 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 24 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Feb 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 24 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 23 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Feb 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Feb 22 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Feb 22 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Feb 22 $2 +$1 +74%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Feb 21 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 21 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 21 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $1 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 3h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $2 28h
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 105d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? SELL No 79¢ $1 106d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 106d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY No 68¢ $1 106d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 106d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 106d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 47¢ $1 106d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1 106d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $1 106d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $6 106d
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 106d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY No 76¢ $1 106d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 106d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? BUY No 55¢ $1 106d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $0 106d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $0 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.93 · official $30.70 · 107 history records