Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4A 0x4abd…5a5c sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$23
sports 30% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +8.0% -2.3% 78% 22% -8.7%
≤30d 9 +8.0% -2.3% 78% 22% -8.7%
≤90d 9 +8.0% -2.3% 78% 22% -8.7%
all 9 +8.0% -2.3% 78% 22% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 22% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 11% -17.4%
15% -20.2% 0% -25.4%
20% -28.0% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $89 +$15 +17%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,104 −$23 -2%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $169 +$12 +7%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $71 +$4 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $21 +$2 +10%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $4 $0 +4%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $60 −$1 -1%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $17 +$5 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 89¢ $23 33m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 20¢ $31 46m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 20¢ $28 46m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 15¢ $22 46m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 15¢ $25 46m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $0 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $558 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $566 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 41¢ $0 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 38¢ $18 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 38¢ $19 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $522 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $538 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $16 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $166 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $152 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $17 2h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 51¢ $0 2h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 49¢ $18 2h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 47¢ $18 2h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 71¢ $0 2h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 69¢ $27 2h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 60¢ $24 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 32¢ $24 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 28¢ $21 2h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 58¢ $5 3h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 54¢ $5 3h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 73¢ $21 3h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 72¢ $21 3h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 86¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records