Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4ac0…6471 other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$551 (-1%) realized −$487 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate82%65W / 14L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,070per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$12
14 days+$126
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$399
other 40% −$425
sports 2% −$469
world 1% −$54
economics 1% +$8
politics 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -13.0% -21.3% 83% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 10 -9.3% -18.0% 80% 20% -9.8%
≤90d 16 -3.1% -12.3% 69% 25% -13.7%
all 79 -5.3% -14.3% 82% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 6% -10.0%
10% -22.5% 5% -18.6%
15% -30.0% 5% -26.5%
20% -36.9% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,456) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$202 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$1,541
Realized−$487
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses65 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage244d
Avg bet$1,070
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? No 95¢ 94¢ $1,000 $995 −$5 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 79¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $105 $44 −$61 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,001 +$37 +4%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $136 +$9 +6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $920 +$30 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $500 +$16 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $300 +$15 +5%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $320 +$120 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,982 +$18 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $309 −$305 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $348 +$162 +46%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $102 +$148 +146%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $48 −$47 -98%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $100 +$197 +197%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $522 −$512 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 17 $291 +$4 +1%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 11 $268 +$26 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 05 $3,104 −$58 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 24 $561 −$11 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $708 +$22 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $1,491 +$9 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $6,427 +$44 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026? Dec 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 29 $1,016 +$14 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $800 +$17 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 27 $2,791 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 27 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 27 $198 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 27 $296 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 27 $465 +$8 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 27 $1,268 +$24 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 25 $10 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 24 $984 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 23 $584 +$12 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 22 $1,613 +$18 +1%
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 21 $401 −$401 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 20 $201 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Dec 20 $2,068 +$4 +0%
US strikes Nigeria by December 31? Dec 20 $24 +$3 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 20 $1,437 +$83 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 19 $1,546 −$232 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 19 $1,933 +$15 +1%
Weed rescheduled in 2025? Dec 18 $971 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 15 $2,493 +$107 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 15 $1,496 +$47 +3%
US strike on Syria by December 19? Dec 15 $558 −$558 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 15 $485 +$15 +3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Dec 14 $2,866 +$101 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 12 $3,378 +$168 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $1,001 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 13h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $503 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 95¢ $477 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 95¢ $473 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $121 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $18 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $18 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $63 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $18 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $18 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 94¢ $2 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $920 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $500 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $300 6d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 100¢ $209 7d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 100¢ $10 7d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 100¢ $60 7d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 99¢ $100 7d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 100¢ $21 7d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 100¢ $21 7d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 99¢ $20 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $63 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $283 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,637 8d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 70¢ $30 9d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 72¢ $290 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 61¢ $309 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 85¢ $57 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL No 85¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,540.82 · official $1,540.82 (match) · 389 history records