Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4A 0x4ac2…e5b6 world 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+5%) realized +$27 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% +$33
other 29% +$9
world 21% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.8% -12.1% 44% 22% -5.2%
≤30d 9 -2.8% -12.1% 44% 22% -5.2%
≤90d 9 -2.8% -12.1% 44% 22% -5.2%
all 9 -2.8% -12.1% 44% 22% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 22% -5.2%
10% -20.5% 11% -14.3%
15% -28.2% 11% -22.6%
20% -35.2% 11% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage7d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 85¢ 88¢ $189 $195 +$6 (+3%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 42¢ 62¢ $7 $11 +$3 (+46%)
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 21 $140 −$5 -3%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $187 +$37 +20%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $30 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 89¢ $136 1h
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e SELL Yes 95¢ $136 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 86¢ $6 14h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $5 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 43¢ $2 43h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 77¢ $22 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 42¢ $2 46h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $23 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 77¢ $25 46h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $26 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 42¢ $4 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 77¢ $2 46h
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY Yes 98¢ $140 47h
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + AC BUY Yes 47¢ $2 47h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 47h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 85¢ $5 47h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 91¢ $20 47h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 3d
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 SELL No 89¢ $9 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 3d
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $30 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 89¢ $36 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $3 6d
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $30 6d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.78 · official $228.92 (match) · 33 history records