Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4A 0x4ac4…3ab4 crypto 532 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$550 (-4%) realized −$1,082 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate68%375W / 179L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day476.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$434
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 554 -12.8% -21.1% 68% 28% -16.2%
≤30d 554 -12.8% -21.1% 68% 28% -16.2%
≤90d 554 -12.8% -21.1% 68% 28% -16.2%
all 554 -12.8% -21.1% 68% 28% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover476.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 28% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 17% -24.2%
15% -35.5% 16% -31.5%
20% -41.9% 16% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,082
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses375 / 179
Open positions0
Markets (closed)554 / 532
History coverage6d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day476.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 554 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $47 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$5 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records