Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4A 0x4ac6…122f crypto 49 markets active 14h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,217 (+21%) realized +$2,632 · open +$7,585
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$1,009per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$392est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$11,885now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,649
7 days+$3,473
14 days+$2,774
30 days+$2,774
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$137
crypto 44% +$5,657
other 6% +$4,839
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +0.3% -9.2% 44% 44% -0.9%
≤30d 45 +29.1% +16.8% 38% 38% -3.9%
≤90d 45 +29.1% +16.8% 38% 38% -3.9%
all 45 +29.1% +16.8% 38% 38% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.8% 38% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here +5.7% 38% -13.1%
15% -4.6% 38% -21.5%
20% -13.9% 33% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +70% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,521 vs −$825 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$11,885
Realized+$2,632
Unrealized+$7,585
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$392
Open positions4
Markets (closed)45 / 49
History coverage13d
Avg bet$1,009
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $2,000 $4,165 +$2,165 (+108%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Yes 13¢ 84¢ $500 $3,212 +$2,712 (+542%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Yes 29¢ 69¢ $1,000 $2,397 +$1,397 (+140%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $800 $2,111 +$1,311 (+164%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $516 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $418 +$759 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $864 −$830 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1,290 −$1,232 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $635 −$602 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1,414 −$1,338 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $947 +$1,480 +156%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,029 −$2,029 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $2,030 −$2,030 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,029 +$1,813 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $80 −$75 -94%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $48 +$62 +129%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2,648 +$4,019 +152%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,036 −$2,036 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,037 +$3,086 +152%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $5,086 −$5,000 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $413 +$712 +172%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,057 −$1,000 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2,075 +$2,209 +106%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $307 −$300 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $2,821 +$1,179 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3,056 +$4,839 +158%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,025 +$1,405 +69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $320 −$300 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $213 −$200 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $638 −$600 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $2,080 −$2,000 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $106 +$838 +788%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $106 −$100 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,670 −$1,600 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 04 $297 +$246 +83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $190 +$748 +394%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 04 $1,022 +$435 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 04 $107 +$1,423 +1336%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,027 +$614 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $107 −$107 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $98 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $61 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $46 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,884.96 · official $12,057.81 · 152 history records