Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:25:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4A 0x4ac8…461d crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$50 (+15%) realized +$54 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate82%14W / 3L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$10
other 41% +$48
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +26.3% +14.3% 82% 65% +3.6%
≤30d 17 +26.3% +14.3% 82% 65% +3.6%
≤90d 17 +26.3% +14.3% 82% 65% +3.6%
all 17 +26.3% +14.3% 82% 65% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.3% 65% +3.6%
10% +3.4% 35% -6.3%
15% -6.6% 18% -15.4%
20% -15.8% 12% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$18 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$54
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses14 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 32¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-57%)
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $91 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +18%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 $0 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$23 +307%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $23 +$47 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $17 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 16h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $22 46h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 46h
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $8 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $7 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.85 · official $24.85 (match) · 44 history records