Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:58:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4A 0x4ac9…cf1a sports 783 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 168d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,155 (+4%) realized +$9,193 · open +$962
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate66%472W / 241L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$439est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$23,111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$241
7 days−$1,265
14 days−$1,327
30 days−$1,795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$1,589
sports 25% +$696
other 21% +$3,404
politics 10% −$544
finance 5% +$206
tech 3% −$2
economics 3% −$168
crypto 1% +$213
culture 0% +$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -34.4% -40.6% 45% 34% -20.5%
≤30d 130 -14.7% -22.8% 54% 45% -14.2%
≤90d 506 -0.2% -9.7% 64% 52% -8.8%
all 713 +2.8% -7.0% 66% 53% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 53% -7.4%
10% -15.9% 45% -16.3%
15% -24.0% 37% -24.4%
20% -31.5% 21% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$125 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$23,111
Realized+$9,193
Unrealized+$962
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses472 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$439
Open positions72
Markets (closed)713 / 783
History coverage168d ⚠
Avg bet$308
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 72 History 713 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 75¢ 80¢ $1,161 $1,236 +$75 (+6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $1,115 $1,229 +$114 (+10%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $1,007 $1,136 +$129 (+13%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $940 $1,027 +$86 (+9%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $995 $1,016 +$21 (+2%)
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $928 $945 +$17 (+2%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 94¢ 93¢ $870 $869 −$0 (-0%)
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 86¢ 94¢ $764 $833 +$69 (+9%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 83¢ 91¢ $719 $784 +$65 (+9%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $701 $610 −$91 (-13%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $500 $549 +$49 (+10%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $500 $534 +$34 (+7%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $485 $530 +$45 (+9%)
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $486 $508 +$22 (+5%)
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? No 79¢ 84¢ $466 $498 +$31 (+7%)
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $460 $489 +$29 (+6%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 81¢ 98¢ $405 $488 +$83 (+21%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $425 $455 +$30 (+7%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $423 $446 +$23 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $364 $402 +$38 (+10%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $400 $392 −$8 (-2%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $375 $378 +$3 (+1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 19¢ 74¢ $98 $370 +$273 (+280%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 83¢ 94¢ $319 $364 +$44 (+14%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 73¢ 82¢ $297 $336 +$39 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $44 −$43 -98%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $87 $0 -0%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 19 $111 −$110 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche Jun 19 $101 +$38 +38%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 18 $855 +$5 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 18 $2,186 +$29 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Jun 18 $3,278 +$98 +3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $76 +$29 +38%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$4 -8%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $304 +$47 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$45 +45%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $152 +$83 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $126 +$21 +17%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 15 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $151 −$151 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 15 $303 −$303 -100%
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Jun 15 $152 +$102 +67%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $152 +$111 +73%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $108 +$76 +70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $351 +$26 +8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $67 −$66 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 +$34 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 +$13 +6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $62 −$28 -44%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $51 +$25 +50%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $101 +$24 +24%
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in Jun 12 $965 −$256 -27%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $151 +$72 +48%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 12 $1,889 +$203 +11%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 12 $227 +$49 +22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 1h
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 11h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $51 11h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 11h
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 11h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $253 11h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 73¢ $10 15h
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $71 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $44 25h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $87 35h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 61¢ $111 41h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 57¢ $203 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $51 2d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 57¢ $101 2d
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 72¢ $101 2d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 2d
AI bubble burst in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $16 2d
AI bubble burst in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $278 2d
AI bubble burst in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $64 2d
AI bubble burst in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $4 2d
AI bubble burst in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $80 2d
AI bubble burst in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $94 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,111.01 · official $23,124.86 (match) · 3500 history records